Will There Be An End To Covid-19?

After 18 months of covid-19, with social distancing, mask wearing and on-off lockdowns, only one question comes to mind whether there will be an end to this menace.

So many speculations are there by scientists and experts, as reported by the media. There is nothing concrete even now.

Russian flu pandemic that emerged in 1889 and spread to virtually every part of the earth causing 4 to 5 waves over 4 years seemed to disappear with passage of time.

Russian flu was however overshadowed by the more devastating Spanish flu pandemic that wiped out around 3% of the world’s population in 1918-19 in 3 waves.

It came to an end, with infected people either dying or developing immunity. Though the virus lost its real virulence by the early 1920, scientists believe that any flu infection in the past 102 years is derived from Spanish flu in one form or another.

Covid-19 is also expected to stay despite vaccinations. Immunity to infection starts waning within weeks of receiving the second dose, which makes herd immunity unachievable. A few countries are again under the tyranny of the virus, with infections and deaths per day back up to where they were in March.

That’s why booster doses are now being recommended. Covid-19 tends to be less severe among immunised people. So the main emphasis of vaccination is now not to protect people from catching virus, but to reduce the severity of infection, as no vaccine is 100% protective.

image: TOI

How covid-19 will end or wane however may vary from one country to another depending upon the proportion of people having developed antibodies either naturally or through vaccine.

Yesterday, the eminent virologist, Dr Gagandeep Kang has predicted that covid-19 in India is likely to become endemic with daily infection rates plateauing and may end with local flare-ups that may form the third wave.

But there is no timeline. The fact is that virus will remain with us, though the disease may become part of the history with passage of time. Till then, full immunisation is the only way with no relaxation in the covid appropriate behaviour. Good luck to all of us 🙏

–Kaushal Kishore