Will There Be An End To Covid-19?

After 18 months of covid-19, with social distancing, mask wearing and on-off lockdowns, only one question comes to mind whether there will be an end to this menace.

So many speculations are there by scientists and experts, as reported by the media. There is nothing concrete even now.

Russian flu pandemic that emerged in 1889 and spread to virtually every part of the earth causing 4 to 5 waves over 4 years seemed to disappear with passage of time.

Russian flu was however overshadowed by the more devastating Spanish flu pandemic that wiped out around 3% of the world’s population in 1918-19 in 3 waves.

It came to an end, with infected people either dying or developing immunity. Though the virus lost its real virulence by the early 1920, scientists believe that any flu infection in the past 102 years is derived from Spanish flu in one form or another.

Covid-19 is also expected to stay despite vaccinations. Immunity to infection starts waning within weeks of receiving the second dose, which makes herd immunity unachievable. A few countries are again under the tyranny of the virus, with infections and deaths per day back up to where they were in March.

That’s why booster doses are now being recommended. Covid-19 tends to be less severe among immunised people. So the main emphasis of vaccination is now not to protect people from catching virus, but to reduce the severity of infection, as no vaccine is 100% protective.

image: TOI

How covid-19 will end or wane however may vary from one country to another depending upon the proportion of people having developed antibodies either naturally or through vaccine.

Yesterday, the eminent virologist, Dr Gagandeep Kang has predicted that covid-19 in India is likely to become endemic with daily infection rates plateauing and may end with local flare-ups that may form the third wave.

But there is no timeline. The fact is that virus will remain with us, though the disease may become part of the history with passage of time. Till then, full immunisation is the only way with no relaxation in the covid appropriate behaviour. Good luck to all of us πŸ™

–Kaushal Kishore

59 Comments

  1. Great message at the end, regarding immunisation and covid-appropriate behaviour. In my opinion, Covid-appropriate behaviour is and always was necessary. The pandemic just taught us that the hard way.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I also hope and pray that severity and virulence of covid will come down now with large-scale vaccinations. Thank you, Derrick πŸ™πŸ’

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    1. Vaccine is playing a decisive role in the war against covid. It was not there in earlier cases of pandemic. Thank you, Tricia for taking time to read and comment πŸ™‚

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Most of us have just forgotten what pandemics or new diseases (such as polio) are like. You are likely correct in your assumption that Covid is with us forever. I would image that the common cold potentially killed people when the virus first emerged. Good wishes and health to you.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. You’re right. I fully resonate with you. Let’s hope that the menace of covid may come to an end soon. Thank you for taking your time to read and share your beautiful reflections πŸ™

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Some of us remember lids without sealed plastic inside of pill bottles that were easily opened. Then the Tylenol killer poisoned some Tylenol in 1986, apparently an inside job at a factory. Suddenly everything was double sealed to expose if the lid had been tampered with.
    Now we will wear masks as friends in Korea, China, Japan and HK have been doing for years.
    But this feels a little different in that the mandates and government orders seem to be overreaching and establishing “authority” that will rule every detail of our lives.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The example given here by you seems to be appropriate, but we have seen the horrors of the second wave. Thereafter some people started wearing double masks. Precaution for a better cause and self protection is called for.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Thanks for replying.

        In my county, cases dropped precipitously as the vaccinations were being rolled out, then the govt. claimed that the vaccinations caused the drop. But it was just the end of that particular surge and had nothing to do with vaccinations. Deaths dropped _before_ the rollout.

        I saw a paper concluding that there is no correlation between vaccination and covid cases.

        We had a summer surge in hospitals in my metro area caused by rural patients who hadn’t been exposed to covid previously. The city dwellers have been highly exposed and are mostly immune even without vaccination.

        I’m sure my county will follow Vermont in a few months as the elderly who are vitamin D deficient get sick. Most of them are vaccinated, but without vitamin D to support their immune systems, the vaccinations won’t help. And vaccinations wane to boot.

        At some point people will totally lose faith in vaccines and will want to revisit antivirals. Now there is lots of evidence of the benefit of antivirals–if given early. Within 72 hours of symptom onset seems to be the window.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Perceptions vary. It depends on so many factors. We had seen the horrors of second wave, when vaccination was in its infancy. But now with more than one billion doses, the situation seems to be under control, but third wave has not yet been ruled out. US, UK, Russia etc have also seen return of covid in a big way. Still infections happen in India around 15K daily, still deaths occur, in low number, but rarely vaccinated people get infected. In a populous country like India, vaccine has come as a boon. I can’t say this about your country. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and ideas.

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